THOUGHTS ON 2022 MIDTERMS

1. No Red Wave.

2. Democrats outperformed all expectations. Normally, the “Out” Party - the Party NOT IN the White House - makes huge gains in Congressional seats in the midterm elections. At this hour, neither body of Congress is settled. Control of the Senate appears to ride on the results in Georgia and Nevada. If the Dems win ONE of those two, they retain Senate majority. (If they win both, they have a 51-49 edge, and the obstructionist Joe Manchin can go eat you-know-what). The House is more likely to flip over to the Repubs, but even if it does, it will only be by a few seats. The GOP will NOT have veto-proof margins in Congress. The loonies in the House may be able to start a sham impeachment against Biden, but they will NOT have the votes to make it work, and will probably only embarrass themselves.

3. The reason behind #1 and 2 is: Donald Trump. Despite his continued hold over about one-third of the American people, he has NO chance of ever winning another nationwide election himself, and little to no chance of helping hand-picked candidates win general elections - because he has NEVER grown his base. The disgruntled folks who went along for his crazy ride in 2016 jumped out of the car by the time of the 2018 midterms, causing the House & Senate to flip BLUE in that election. They refused to get back in the car in 2020, which propelled boring, uncharismatic, Sleepy Uncle Joe to presidential victory by 7 million votes. And despite massive dissatisfaction including the worst inflation since the 1970s, 2022 voters rejected Trumpian election deniers all over the senatorial & gubernatorial maps. It’s an accomplishment to have one-third of the country worshiping at your feet . . . but ONE-THIRD doesn’t win elections. And that leads us to:

4. It was a big night for a big jackass in Florida. (And, BTW, it may be too late to ask, but I wonder if Spain would like to buy FLA back from us? What a messed-up place!) Ron DeSantis won gubernatorial reelection handily over a pretty decent & moderate former governor named Charlie Crist. He also may have bragging rights if the GOP takes back the U.S. House, since 3 incumbent Democrats lost their seats last night thanks to DeSantis’s crooked gerrymandering of House districts in the Sunshine State. DeSantis is the GOP’s rising star. Someone last night called him “Boring Trump” and that’s astute. The one-third nutbase loves Trump craziness, but the rest of the GOP wants something more sedate: they want a jerk who can act like he’s normal - and DeSantis fits that bill perfectly. And that leads us to:

5. The 2024 race begins, if not today, then VERY soon, within a month or two (it may take that long to get a Senate winner in Georgia). Trump has been teasing a “big announcement” for next Tuesday, the 15th, and it’s almost certainly about his intentions for ‘24. Most pundits assume he will officially declare his candidacy, and that makes sense in many ways, but I still have my doubts. Although he is an ignoramus of the first degree, I believe he is cognizant enough to understand he will never win another election. And his fragile, spoiled rich kid ego does NOT want to suffer another nationwide embarrassment (even though he would naturally deny it & claim victory anyway). He may, however, be willing to do it just for the attention it would bring him for two years, for the money he can grift out of his dumbass cult members, and for the ability to claim “political witch hunt” as the Dept. of Justice tightens the noose around his neck for stealing government documents and seditious conspiracy.

6. So what happens if DeSantis and Trump go head-to-head for the GOP nomination in 2024? I hope you’re ready for it, because if Trump does announce on the 15th, we’re going to be hearing about this nonstop for the next 2 years. If Trump is in, he will not back down. And DeSantis, the conquering general of the ‘22 midterms, the rising star, the sedate/boring Trump, can smell blood. He sees his time coming. He’s probably already given his wife the green light to start ordering drapes & linens for the White House. He owes some of his status to clinging to Trump’s coattails in 2018, but he’s not about to bow down to his former leader/mentor. He is all IN, and ready to go all OUT. And the Republican Party, whether they’ll admit it publicly or not, is very happy about it. An apparently normal, civil human, who looks great to traditional conservatives, can draw Hispanic votes, has the potential to hoodwink the usual pigheaded white male voters the GOP depends on to win, has 29 Electoral College votes already locked up….This guy can win the White House for them in ‘24. If this was 20 or 30 years ago, he’d be the clear frontrunner already.

But . . . there’s Trump.

He can never be President again, but he either doesn’t know it, or won’t admit it. More significantly, his base voters, who are even lower on the mentality scale than he is, have no doubt he CAN win again. Heck, most of them think he’s still President NOW. So, if he runs, they are with him. There is nothing DeSantis or the Republican Party can do to take those votes away from Trump. A DeSantis vs. Trump campaign fight in ‘23-’24 would be a spectacle for the ages. Personally, I would revel in it, because nothing is sweeter to me than the thought of the Republican Party tearing itself to shreds from the inside out. The nomination can only be won by one man. If Trump’s base power holds sway and he gets the nod, then the Democrats can run Joe Biden’s dog against him and the mutt will win. But if DeSantis grabs the crown, the whole atmosphere changes, and both sides will have to deal with the new climate.

7. If Trump has tried but failed to get the GOP nomination in ‘24, I can’t see him bowing out gracefully and wishing DeSantis well. No, I think the Big Orange Ego will stake out a place for himself, either inside the arena or just outside it. Creating a 3rd Party - a MAGA Party, or AMERICA FIRST Party, or PATRIOTS Party - would be a strong possibility for him. He’d have a great time trolling DeSantis as well as the Democrats. Of course, this would almost guarantee victory for the Democratic nominee, as the rightwing vote would be fatally split. But Trump wouldn’t shed any more tears over that than I would - BECAUSE he doesn’t care about the Republican Party or any of its policies, except inasmuch as what they can do for HIM. If the Dems win, big deal - just gives him something else to shoot off his mouth about.

8. What happens, though, if “normalcy” returns, if Trump somehow is out of the picture - if, for example, he steps away on grounds of having to devote all his time & money to fighting his multiple legal battles? (Hey, another great opportunity to grift $$$ from his base!) What if it’s just DeSantis vs. the Democrat in the 2024 campaign?

If that’s the case, then the Dems are the ones who are in real danger. It was good to see no Red Wave last night. It was good to see so many election deniers losing. But the House is most likely going Red, and the Senate, if it stays Blue, will do so JUST BARELY. A good, decent, smart guy named Tim Ryan lost the Ohio Senate seat to a phony named J.D. Vance. A lying ignorant domestic abuser, Herschel Walker, is tied at this moment with the senior pastor of Martin Luther King’s former church in Atlanta. In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, a multi-millionaire who wants to remove funding from Social Security & Medicare and pooh-poohed the January 6 insurrection, holds a slim lead over his Democrat opponent for that Senate seat.

We have to face it: Right now, this is a 50-50 country. Yeah, in some really Red districts and some really Blue districts, House candidates can blow their opponents out by wide margins, but in the big races - Governors, Senators, President - the outcomes are usually determined by less than 5 percentage points, often by 1 or 2.

If DeSantis is the GOP guy in ‘24, the Dems have a real fight on their hands. Never mind the ridiculous ads he ran in 2018, reading Trump bedtime stories to his children. Never mind him kidnapping asylum seekers out of Texas and giving them a one-way ticket to Martha’s Vineyard just for a laugh. Never mind that he’s a jackass and a phony. He’s a relatively young white male with blue eyes & Ronald Reagan hair, and has a 29-point headstart in the Electoral College.

9. I was not an enthusiastic Biden supporter in 2020, but he has gone above & beyond what I or anyone else expected from him. While he has pushed through some of the most progressive legislation in the last 60 years, his niche in history will be that he saved America from a Trump dictatorship. And that is big. But he’s turning 80 in a couple weeks; he’ll be almost 82 on Election Day 2024. That doesn’t mean he’s useless, or should be sent to the glue factory, but the man is way past his Sell By date now. He’s struggling to keep up and it’s only going to get worse. I’m seeing him now as a placeholder, a bookmark for when we go back and start the next chapter. And there HAS to be a next chapter for the Democrats. It’s a 50-50 country and the Republicans are so good at deceiving people. Ten million jobs have been added under the Biden administration and unemployment is at a 50-year low - but the number one issue for angry GOP voters is “the economy.”

Point being: Don’t count on common sense - or the truth - to persuade voters. Biden and Pelosi and Schumer and the other Dem leaders have their hearts in the right place, but none of them are causing the average American to fall in love. One of the exit polls from yesterday was “Would you like to see Joe Biden run in 2024?” The response was Yes 30% and No 67%. Now, that includes Republican voters as well as Democrats, but, just like I said about Trump: You can’t win with one-third.

The Dems need another standard-bearer, and hopefully one with some staying power. I still say Biden could beat Trump in ‘24, but I don’t think he can beat anyone else. Certainly not the young, well-scrubbed smiling phony DeSantis. And Kamala Harris isn’t going to do it either. She got nowhere in a wide-open 2020 Dem field. (Well, she got to the Vice-Presidency, which is kind of nowhere.) Bernie’s never gonna make it. Mayor Pete is an interesting case with some potential, but I don’t think the good old US of A is ready for THAT. I’d love to see Elizabeth Warren be the first woman President, but the good old US of A also seems to have an issue with very intelligent female politicians. Remember that really smart woman who lost to a total moronic buffoon in 2016?

Chances are, the best choice is going to be someone who has not run before.

10. A lot can happen in 2 years to alter the landscape. No one knew in 2013 that Trump was going to take the escalator down in 2015 and rearrange EVERYTHING. Two years of Biden vs. Kevin McCarthy, or Biden vs. McCarthy & McConnell tag team, will feel a lot different than two years of Biden, Pelosi, Schumer and a 51-seat Blue Senate. Who knows what may shake out.

Another few days should tell us where the House landed. Maybe a month for the Senate. After that, the Democrats need to put on their thinking caps and get down to business. Because Mrs. DeSantis is shopping for drapes & linens as we speak.